Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Tue, 07/07/2009 - 08:05 — admin

An update on the latest production
numbers from the
EIA along with graphs/charts of
different oil production forecasts. 



World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil
+ NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 15 models that are
predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets,
Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High,
HSM,Duncan&Youngquist). 95% of the
predictions  sees a production
peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The
95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap
technique). The magenta
area is the 95% confidence interval for the population-based model.
Click
to Enlarge. 


http://www.7gen.com/blog/20081026/24961-aspousa-2008 -->



Notations:

  • mbpd= Million of
    barrels
    per day

  • Gb= Billion of barrels
    (109)

  • Tb=
    Trillion of barrels
    (1012)
  • NGPL= Natural Gas Plant Liquids
  • CO=
    Crude Oil + lease condensate
  • NGL=
    Natural Gas Liquids (lease condensate + NGPL)
  • URR= Ultimate Recoverable
    Resource

EIA Last Update (March)

Data sources for the production numbers:

  • Production data from BP Statistical
    Review of World Energy     (Crude oil + NGL).
  • EIA data
    (monthly and annual productions up to March 2009) for crude oil and
    lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted
    CO+NGL).

The all liquid peak is now July 2008 at 
86.65 mbpd, the
year to date average production value in 2009 (3
months) is down from 2008 for all the categories. The
peak date 
for Crude Oil + Cond. is also July 2008 at 74.80 mbpd (see Table I
below).



Fig
1.- World production (EIA data). Blue lines and pentagrams are
indicating monthly maximum. Monthly data for CO from the EIA. Annual
data for NGPL and Other Liquids from 1980 to 2001 have
been upsampled to get monthly estimates. 

Category
MAR 2009
MAR 2008
MAR 2007
12 MA1
2009 (3 Months)
2008 (3 Months)
2007 (3 Months)
Share
Peak Date
Peak Value

All Liquids
83.75
85.98
84.25
84.93
83.60
85.48
84.42
100.00%
2008-07
86.65

Crude Oil + NGL
79.97
82.35
80.92
81.14
79.79
81.73
80.96
95.49%
2008-07
82.88

Other Liquids
3.78
3.63
3.33
3.79
3.81
3.75
3.45
4.51%
2008-11
3.89

NGPL
7.97
8.06
7.95
7.89
7.86
7.93
7.96
9.52%
2008-07
8.08

Crude Oil + Condensate
72.00
74.29
72.97
73.25
71.93
73.80
73.01
85.97%
2008-07
74.80

Canadian Tar Sands
1.26
1.19
1.26
1.22
1.24
1.20
1.19
1.50%
2007-08
1.35

Table I -
Production
estimate
(in millions of barrels per day (mbpd)) up to March 2009 taken from
the EIA website (International
Petroleum Monthly). 1Average
on the last 12 months. Canadian tar sands production numbers are from
the NEB and includes updagraded and
non-upgraded bitumen. 

Business as Usual

  • EIA's International
    Energy Outlook 2006    , reference case (Table E4, World Oil
    Production by Region and Country, Reference Case).
  • IEA total liquid demand forecast for 2006 and 2007 (Table1.xls).
  • IEA World Energy Outlook 2008, see post here for details.
  • IEA World
    Energy Outlook 2006     : forecasts for All liquids, CO+NGL and
    Crude Oil (Table 3.2, p. 94).
  • IEA World
    Energy Outlook 2005     : forecast for All liquids (Table 3.5).
  • IEA World
    Energy Outlook 2004     : forecast for All liquids (Table 2.4).
  • A simple demographic model based on the observation that
    the
    oil produced per capita has been roughly constant for the last 26 years
    around 4.4496 barrels/capita/year (Crude Oil + NGL). The world
    population forecast employed is the UN 2004 Revision Population
    Database     (medium variant).
  • CERA
    forecasts for conventional oil (Crude Oil + Condensate?) and all
    liquids, believed to be productive capacities (i.e. actual production +
    spare capacity). The numbers have been derived from Figure 1 in Dave's response
    to CERA    .







Fig 4.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak.


PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis

  • Chris Skrebowski's megaprojects database (see
    discussion here).
  • The ASPO forecast from April newsletter (#76):
    I took the production numbers for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2050 and
    then interpolated the data (spline) for the missing years. I added the
    previous forecast issued one year and two years ago (newsletter #58
    and #46
    respectively).
  • Rembrandt H. E. M. Koppelaar (Oil
    Supply Analysis 2006 - 2007    ): "Between 2006 and
    2010 nearly 25 mbpd of new production is expected to come on-stream
    leading to a production (all liquids) level of 93-94 mbpd (91 mbpd for
    CO+NGL) in 2010 with the incorporation of a decline rate of 4% over
    present day production"    .
  • Koppelaar Oil
    Production Outlook 2005-2040 - Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands
    (November 2005 Edition)    .
  • The WOCAP
    model     from Samsam Bakhtiari (2003). The forecast is for crude
    oil plus NGL.
  • Forecast by Michael Smith (was at the Energy
    Institute, now works for EnergyFiles) for CO+NGL,
    the data have been taken from this chart
    in this presentation
    (The Future for Global Oil Supply (1641Kb), November 2006.).
  • PhD thesis of Frederik
    Robelius     (2007):  Giant Oil Fields - The Highway
    to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production.
    The forecasts (low and high) are derived from this chart.
  • Forecast by TOD's contributor Ace,
    details can be found in this post.
  • The forecast by Duncan and Youngquist  made
    in 1999, see also this post
    by Euan Mearns.







Fig 5.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up
methodologies. 


PeakOilers: Curve Fitting
The following results are based
on a linear or non-linear fit of a parametric curve (most often a
Logistic curve) directly on the observed production profile:







Fig 6.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting
methodologies.
Forecast Performance
It is difficult to compare forecasts because they deal with different
liquid category and have different baseline. The forecasts were
evaluated using the Mean Asolute Scaled Error (MASE) proposed by
Hyndman and
Koehler [1]. A good forecast will have a MASE value less than 1 (i.e.
better performance than a simple naive forecast). We can notice than
some MASE curves are decreasing with time indicating that their
predicted values are getting more accurate further in time.




Fig. 7. - MASE values
as a function of the forecast horizon.








Forecast
Date
2006
2008
2009
2010
2015
MASE2
Peak Date
Peak Value

All
Liquids

Observed
(All Liquids)

84.54

85.48

83.60
NA
NA

2008-07

86.65

IEA (WEO)
2004
83.74
87.08
88.74
90.40
98.69
0.39
2030
121.30

IEA (WEO)
2005
85.85
89.35
90.98
92.50
99.11
0.64
2030
115.40

Koppelaar
2005
85.78
87.60
88.33
89.21
87.98
0.42
2011
89.58

Lahèrrere
2005
84.47
85.87
86.46
86.96
87.77

0.20
2014
87.84

EIA (IEO)
2006
84.50
88.23
90.00
91.60
98.30
0.65
2030
118.00

IEA (WEO)
2006
85.10
88.17
89.73
91.30
99.30
0.68
2030
116.30

CERA1
2006
89.52
93.75
95.34
97.24
104.54
1.89
2035
130.00

Lahèrrere
2006
84.82
87.02
87.99
88.93
92.27
0.46
2018
92.99

Smith
2006
87.77
94.38
96.98
98.94
98.56
0.39
2012-05
99.83

IEA (WEO)
2008
83.15
85.51
86.80
88.15
94.40
0.63
2030
106.40

Crude
Oil + NGL

Observed
(EIA)

81.25

81.73

79.79
NA
NA

2008-07

82.88

Duncan & Youngquist
1999
83.93
83.55
82.90
81.65
73.47

0.11
2007-01
83.95

Population based
2004
79.73
81.58
82.50
83.42
88.01
0.33
2050
110.64

GBM
2003
76.27
76.20
75.87
75.30
67.79
0.17
2007-05
76.34

Bakhtiari
2003
80.89
80.24
78.94
77.64
69.51
0.17
2006
80.89

ASPO-46
2004
80.95
80.59
80.31
80.00
73.77
0.12
2005
81.00

ASPO-58
2005
82.03
84.05
84.74
85.00
79.18
0.53
2010
85.00

Staniford (High)
2005
77.92
78.63
78.86
79.01
78.51
0.18
2011-10
79.08

Staniford (Med)
2005
75.94
75.91
75.76
75.52
73.00
0.30
2007-05
75.98

Staniford (Low)
2005
70.13
69.20
68.60
67.92
63.40
0.64
2002-07
70.88

IEA (WEO)
2006
81.38
83.96
85.24
86.50
92.50
0.72
2030
104.90

Koppelaar
2006
82.31
85.60
88.03
91.00
NA
1.20
2010
91.00

Skrebowski
2006
81.97
85.14
86.76
87.95
NA
1.01
2010
87.95

Smith
2006
82.81
88.27
90.58
91.95
88.60
0.34
2011-02
92.31

Loglets
2006
82.14
83.74
84.29
84.65
83.26
0.14
2012-01
84.80

ASPO-76
2006
79.00
85.06
88.49
90.00
85.00
1.11
2010
90.00

Robelius Low
2006
82.19
82.35
81.92
81.84
72.26
0.39
2007
82.50

Robelius High
2006
84.19
89.27
91.65
93.40
92.40
2.11
2012
94.54

Shock Model
2006
80.43
79.51
78.93
78.27
73.74
0.37
2003
81.17

EWG
2007
81.00
79.79
79.00
78.06
69.21
0.41
2005
81.39

IEA (WEO)
2008
79.80
81.59
82.49
83.40
87.40
0.71
2030
95.00

Crude
Oil + Lease Condensate

Observed
(EIA)

73.46

73.80

71.93
NA
NA

2008-07

74.80

ASPO-46
2004
72.56
71.89
71.47
71.00
63.55
0.20
2005
72.80

Deffeyes
2004
69.92
69.64
69.37
69.01
65.98

0.17
2005-12
69.94

ASPO-58
2005
73.80
75.39
75.89
76.00
69.50
0.44
2010
76.00

IEA (WEO)
2006
71.78
73.76
74.74
75.70
80.30
0.38
2030
89.10

CERA1
2006
76.89
80.35
81.58
82.29
83.83
2.00
2038
97.58

ASPO-76
2006
72.10
75.74
77.47
78.00
72.00
0.75
2010
78.00

HSM
2007
73.56
73.40
73.16
72.82
69.53
0.28
2006
73.56

Ace
2007
73.48
72.18
69.77
66.96
58.47
0.12
2006-01
73.55

IEA (WEO)
2008
69.73
70.64
71.06
71.46
73.00
1.07
2030
75.20

Table II. Summary of
all the
forecasts (figures are in mbpd) as well as the last EIA estimates.1Productive
capacities. 2MASE
value for March 2009, the value in bold indicates the best forecast
(i.e. the oldest
with the lowest error).
Are We There Yet?


We can consider two competitive models for the crude oil + NGL
production:

  1. M0:
    The oil production will continue to grow with the world population at a
    constant rate of 4.3 barrels per capita.
  2. M1:
     The production will fall according to the average peak oil
    forecast.

These two models are represented as a magenta and a yellow area on the
top figure of this post. According to the M0 model, the current fall in
production levels for March 2009 is 0.004 significant. However lower
deviations were observed in the late 90s and in 2001 (there were
previously 16 months with larger deviations since 1990). The likelihood
ratio between the two models has significantly increased above 3
indicating than the M1 model is more stronly supported by the recent
production levels than the M0 model which was not the case before 2009.





Fig. 8 - Likelihood ratio
(M1/M0) at the left and Statistical significance of observed production
levels according to M0 (the red circle is March 2009).

Previous Update:

August
2008



[1] Rob J. Hyndman, Anne B. Koehler, Another look at
measures of
forecast
accuracy, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 22, Issue 4,
October-December 2006, Pages 679-688. pdf available here.

Khebab@theoildrum.com